US Election Swing State Odds: Betting Flips To Trump Over Harris In Pennsylvania

UK betting sites have flipped their Pennsylvania odds in favour of Donald Trump on the eve of the 2024 US election, with Kamala Harris now expected to lose the swing state.

Pennsylvania is considered a must for Harris if she is to beat Donald Trump this November.

The state carries 19 electoral college votes and polling data suggests it’s a toss-up between Harris and Trump right now.

PA famously voted for Trump in 2016 before swinging back to the Democrats and Joe Biden four years later. 

This time, the former president is tied with Harris on 47% in the state, but he has a large lead over his rival with male voters.

Political betting sites have been tracking the Pennsylvania odds for months and expected Trump to walk the state before Biden exited the race earlier this summer.

Harris’ entry into the race caused the odds to balance out, with some bookies nudging her ahead of Trump by the end of September. 

But that’s all changed, with the Keystone State now seemingly on the verge of backing Trump – if bookmakers are to be believed.

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Pennsylvania Election Odds

Latest Pennsylvania Election Betting Odds

With just days to go in the 2024 presidential election, Trump appears to be pulling away from Harris. A month ago the Democrats led this market with odds of 5/6, while the Republicans were 10/11.

That’s all changed now. The bookies now reckon Trump is 8/11 to win (57.9% probability) and Harris is 11/10 (47.6%).

That suggests a 10% lead for Trump, which is beyond the margin of error that pollsters carry when they predict the election results. For context, Trump leads the state by 0.4% in the polls.

Harris needs to win Pennsylvania. The 19 votes that the state carries is crucial for her drive to claim 270.

Trump can rely on other swing states to make up ground if he loses here, but Pennsylvania is all-or-bust for Harris.

Who Will Win Pennsylvania?

Accurately predicting the Pennsylvania presidential election result is almost impossible at this stage. 

August saw both candidates lead by a few points in selected polls, but neither carved open a clear, consistent lead.

This state could be decided by a few counties, and a few thousand voters. There are three ‘pivot counties’ that have flipped red and blue over the past two decades. 

Barack Obama and Trump each won Erie County, Luzerne County and Northampton County in 2012 and 2016 respectively. Trump then retained Luzerne in 2020.

Combined, these three counties alone are responsible for 6.6% of the state’s overall turnout and provide a major swing effect depending on which way they turn.

So, who will win Pennsylvania? Betting apps give Trump a 10% edge but realistically this state is on a knife edge.

That’s a worrying position for the Dems to be in, while Trump’s team will be happy with where they’re at this close to the election.

Why Is Pennsylvania A Swing State?

Between 1860 and 1932 Pennsylvania was a reliable Republican state in the US presidential election. Franklin D. Roosevelt changed all that when he won with 56.88% of the vote in 1936. 

Since then the state has swung red and blue, with the Democrats enjoying a spell of loyalty between 1992 and 2012.

Trump’s remarkable victory in 2016 brought Pennsylvania back into play as a core swing state. 

The Democrats have started to rely on PA’s 19 electoral college votes, but now they have to scramble for them.

The state has a heady mix of voters due to its diversity. Rural counties generally backed Trump in 2020, while Biden claimed the votes of those living in cities. 

Meanwhile, Philadelphia usually supports the Dems and Pittsburgh backs the GOP. The difference between Biden and Trump was about 80,000 votes four years ago.

However, the true reason PA is a swing state is because of the smaller urban areas of Harrisburg, Allentown-Bethlehem, Erie and Scranton that regularly flip.