Labour Tipped To Win Uxbridge & South Ruislip By-Election Betting

UK betting sites believe Labour are on course to capture Boris Johnson’s now-vacant Uxbridge & South Ruislip constituency in July’s upcoming by-election and deliver another blow to the Conservatives.

Johnson sensationally quit as an MP this month after reading the Privileges Committee’s impartial report into his knowledge of Partygate during Covid-19, and whether he lied to the House.

A furious Johnson delivered a 1,000-word exit statement, blasting the committee, opposition parties, Remainers (for some reason), and prime minister Rishi Sunak. 

The diatribe has been considered Trumpian, with Johnson accusing the Privileges Committee of a “witch hunt” to sully his name.

His departure from parliament means Uxbridge & South Ruislip is now up for grabs, and a July date is about to be set. 

It means there is a mass scramble for the UK’s political parties to get their candidates ready - and the Tories were taken so off-guard they still haven’t got someone in place.

This is causing UK bookmakers to re-evaluate what they assumed was a safe Conservative seat. 

Indeed, it now looks like Labour will crush their rivals and claim a monumental victory.

Uxbridge & South Ruislip Betting

According to political betting sites, Labour are 1/8 to win Uxbridge & South Ruislip. That is a remarkable price in a former Tory prime minister’s constituency. 

Johnson became MP of Uxbridge & South Ruislip MP back in 2015 precisely because it was an easy seat to win. 

He claimed 50.2% of the vote eight years ago and increased his vote share in 2017 and then 2019.

But it looks like this True Blue seat is about to turn red. Danny Beales is Labour’s candidate this summer and the bookies reckon he has an 88.9% chance of winning the by-election. 

Laurence Fox is running for Reform UK and his odds of 33/1 aren’t expected to drop much further.

Even the Lib Dems at 25/1 are seemingly out of the race here and will likely focus their attention on Nadine Dorries’ now-vacated Mid-Bedfordshire season.

Only the Tories at 11/2 and without a candidate yet appear in any position to beat Labour.

Big Swing To Labour

If you want to know just how big a Labour victory would be in Uxbridge & South Ruislip then you just have to look at the polls. 

Before Johnson’s resignation, when he was embroiled in further acrimony over the Privileges Committee investigation, the Tories were polling at 50% in the constituency. The Lord Ashcroft Poll had Labour at 33%.

But Savanta now give Labour a 19-point lead. It suggests they have a 92% chance of winning, which is accurately reflected in the odds on betting apps too.

Now, there are caveats to that polling data. The main one being that Labour’s overall poll lead over the Tories has narrowed since. 

The second is that the question was based on the idea of a general election being held, not a by-election. Voters may choose to vote differently when basing their choice on a purely local level.

However, there’s no denying that Labour look in a good position here. Beales will have to work hard to turn the constituency red, but he has a big advantage in the spectre of Johnson.

Voters appear to have had enough of being the centre of attention here, and we’re still awaiting a Conservative candidate to be announced. 

Every day we wait, the case for Labour is strengthened - and the odds will simply get shorter and shorter.