Celtics vs Mavericks: The Panel's Picks & Best Bets For The NBA Finals Game 4

Our Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 3 Picks

• The Panel Pick 1: Boston To Win Outright On Friday @ -104 With DraftKings
• The Panel Pick 2: Boston and Dallas Under 209.5 Points @ +110 With FanDuel
• The Panel Pick 3: Dereck Lively II To Get 10+ Rebounds @ +155 With BetMGM 

The NBA Finals followed a familiar pattern on Thursday night as the Boston Celtics defeated the Dallas Mavericks 106-99. 

Boston were able to stay close in the first half. However, in the third quarter, the Celtics got hot from the floor, making Dallas pay the most as Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown led the way.

Boston took a commanding 3-0 series lead and made 17 shots from three-point range while attempting 46 shots from beyond the arc - the Mavericks tried just 25.  

Meanwhile, Boston completed a 20-5 spurt early into the fourth quarter to drive their lead up to 21. Dallas then scored 22 of the next 24 points to close the gap down to one. 

From there, Boston’s top three players tallied the final 13 points and sealed a very likely NBA championship. 

Dallas again shot well but turned the ball over 17 times. Kyrie Irving led all scorers with 35, but Luka Doncic only added 27 and fouled out with 4:12 to go. 

Give Boston credit for getting Doncic in early foul trouble. Maybe a couple of calls were questionable. However, it paid dividends late.  

Now, the question is can Dallas avoid the sweep on Friday night, or will Boston win the title? Game 4 will be televised on ABC starting at 8:30 p.m. ET. 

The Panel has mulled over the key stats ahead of Game 4 to come up with these betting predictions from sports betting sites.  

Boston Approaching Even Money For The Sweep

Boston always seem to find ways to play the big points better again and again. 

Once more, Dallas were up at halftime and as many as 13 points in that first half. 

The Celtics did not complain to referees and did not get rattled by the physical play; they simply played basketball, from their star players right down to the depth. 

The early Game 4 moneyline has Boston at -104 favorites. That is because the spread currently hovers around 1 to 1.5 points for the Dallas Mavericks with NBA betting websites.

If Dallas cannot play the key points better late in games, they will be swept away. Even the Minnesota Timberwolves did that for one game against Dallas. 

Boston play the game at a different level than Dallas. Kendrick Perkins brought up a great point. “Luka Doncic cost Dallas Game 3. How he comes out in Game 4 will say a lot about him and Dallas.” 

The frustration got to Doncic in Game 3. Boston saw that and exploited it at will and will likely continue to do so.

How will Jason Kidd counter this? That is a great question. 

Dallas made that incredible run on Wednesday night. Could they do it again on Friday? The Mavericks need to make a statement early and then play those impact minutes better than Boston. 

That will be easier said than done.  

At this point, bookmakers believe less in a Game 5 than previously expected and the public still want a series, but Boston are 15-2 this postseason for a reason.

The Panel believes Game 4 will be close in the fourth quarter again, but one in which Boston seal the title.  

The Panel Pick 1: Boston To Win Outright Friday @ -104 With DraftKings

Let’s Keep Going Under, Shall We?

The number that sportsbooks keep setting is fascinating. 

When the early lines came out late Wednesday night, some pundits expected the Over/Under to be 209.5 or maybe 210.5. Nobody counted on 211.5 and yet here we are.     

Dallas and Boston have seen an upward trajectory in points. There were 196 in Game 1, 203 in Game 2, and 205 in Game 3. 

Looking back at the last round, there was an expectation that Game 4 between Indiana and Boston would tilt toward the Over. 

It did not come close as Boston focused on the defensive end and the result was 207. 

There are several options and we used them on Wednesday. That included Dallas Under 99.5 points at +175. 

We take a more measured approach for Friday night and focus on the alternate Game Under instead. If it is not broken, why fix it?   

The Panel Pick 2: Boston and Dallas Under 209.5 Points  @ +110 With FanDuel

We Come Alive With Dereck Lively II

For some small wagers, we came out smelling like roses after Game 3. 

While forecasting props like rebounds can be dangerous, it is clear Dereck Lively II has a knack for boxing out and getting to the ball. 

He had 13 rebounds in Game 3 and three on the offensive end.  Lively II could come close to this in Game 4. 

The sportsbooks say no and even offer plus money (+120) for the Dallas Center to get to nine rebounds. 

While that is a wager that can be easily bet on, let’s take it up a notch. 

The alternate for 10+ rebounds is +155 with BetMGM and it’s a number that may not change.    

Could the Center go higher here? Absolutely.   

The Panel Pick 3: Dereck Lively II To Get 10+ Rebounds @ +155 With BetMGM