NBA Picks: Can Memphis Stay Hot? Can the Kings Get a Win?

Player Prop Bet Picks for Tonight's Games

• Bet the Kings De’Aaron Fox Over 26.5 points -104 at FanDuel. PointsBet, DraftKings, Caesars are priced at 25.5 points, but –130 vig.
• Bet the Mavericks Luka Doncic to record a double-double -125 at DraftKings. FanDuel and BetMGM are priced at –125 or better.
• Bet the Warriors Stephen Curry Over 4.5 made three pointers +116 at Caesars. DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, and Unibet have better vig.

The player prop bets are 14-15 making $42.50 for the season wagering $50 per prop.

Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings

7 p.m. ET

Line: Grizzlies –4 | Total: 237 points

Bet the Kings +4 and sprinkle the moneyline at +140 at BetMGM.

The Grizzlies begin a four-game road trip starting tonight against the Kings, who are 0-3 and one of three winless teams. The Grizzlies are 3-1.

Desmond Bane shot 13 of 49 (27%) from the field over the first three games, but broke out to score a career-high 38 points on 14 of 21 and 8 of 11 3-point shots in Memphis' last game. There is a high probability that he will have a below-average game tonight because players that have been in a shooting slump need more than one good game to move forward.

What are the Betting Markets Telling Us?

I like the fact the line opened with the Grizzlies as 4-point favorites and, despite accounting for 70% of the tickets bet on them, the line has drifted lower to masking them a 3-point favorite. 

Clearly, the larger professional bettors are more than offsetting the betting flows from the public wagers with 62% of the total take (total money bet) on the Kings.

The Predictive Models Support a Bet on the Kings

The current line and total reflect a 120.5-116.5 Grizzlies win. My predictive models expect the Kings to score at least 115 points and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. 

In past home games in which the Kings met or exceeded these performance measures, they have a 42-20 record and 43-18-1 against the spread mark, good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

If the Kings were installed as a home dog in these games, they are 18-123 SU and 24-6-12 ATS, good for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Situational Trends and Angles

• Kings coach Mike Brown is 10-62 ATS after covering the spread in two of the last three games over his career.
• The Kings are 18-10 ATS (64%) when priced as a dog and coming off a game against a divisional foe.