NBA Picks: Can the 76ers Bounce Back After Tough Stretch?

Prop Bets to Consider Today

The player prop bets are 64-55 making $813 for the season wagering $50 per prop. 

Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets

8 p.m. ET 

Line: 76ers -7; Total: 222 points 

I am betting the 76ers -7 points at DraftKings.

The Philadelphia 76ers had won seven of their past nine games before starting a three-game road trip that has not gone well. 

They lost by 32 points to the Cleveland Cavaliers priced as four-point road underdogs Wednesday and then lost to the Memphis Grizzlies 117-109 as five-point road dogs Friday. 

NBA Model Predictions

The current betting markets reflect a 114.5-107.5 765ers win tonight. My predictive models show an 82% probability that the Rockets will not score more than 105 points and that the 76ers will have the better assist-to-turnover ratio. 

In past 76ers games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures have seen them earn an 83-9 straight-up (SU) record and a 74-17-1 against the spread (ATS) mark good for 81% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

The Rockets have been a money-burning 6-70 SU and 11-64-1 ATS, good for 15% winning bets when scoring 105 or fewer points and having the weaker assist-to-turnover ratio over the past five seasons.

Situational trends and angles

• The Rockets are 12-30 ATS (21%) in home games when the total has been between 220 and 229.5 points over the past three seasons.
• The Rockets are 7-23 ATS (23%) in home games following a game in which they failed to score more than 105 points over the past five seasons.
• The Rockets are 8-21-1 ATS (28%) in home games coming off a road loss over the past three seasons.

Other Games to Consider Today

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks -3

• Mavericks are 22-8 ATS (73%) when playing with same-season revenge over the last two seasons.

Oklahoma City +6 at Atlanta Hawks

• Thunder is 15-7 ATS (68%) as a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past two seasons.