Sweet 16 Best Bets, Picks and Odds For March Madness 2023

Best Moneyline Bet for March Madness Sweet 16

Arkansas vs. Connecticut - Moneyline Bet on Arkansas

Arkansas and Connecticut tussle for a spot in the Elite Eight on Saturday. Arkansas (+150) can make foul shots when they need to. The Razorbacks never gave up versus the Jayhawks. Even down double digits, Arkansas clawed back and won. 

The Huskies are good. Connecticut ranks fifth in the Simple Rating System for a reason. They have a strong point differential of 13.8 and rank in the top 30 in both offensive and defensive ratings. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have been to the Elite Eight twice (2021 and 2022). Take Arkansas in a slight upset.

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Best Over/Under Bets Today - March Madness Sweet 16

Michigan St. vs. Kansas St. - Under 137.5 points (-130)

Michigan St. and Kansas St. play Thursday in an East Region battle that should feature a good deal of physicality and defense. Michigan State plays differently in the Big Dance, and Kansas State might feel a slight case of nerves going up against the Tom Izzo-coached squad early. 

Aside from the obvious, this game depends on Michigan State dictating the pace. The Spartans do not play catch-up well if the Wildcats jump up early. Finally, with the number dependent on shifts, seeing this move up to 138.5 or more would be even better. 

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Best Upset Pick For Sweet 16

Princeton vs. Creighton - Upset Pick (+390)

Now, Princeton could go 3-for-3 in the upset pool against Creighton on Friday. The Tigers played even better over the weekend against Missouri. The Cinderella Team held Missouri to just 63 points as Princeton picked up the pace after halftime and scored 45 second-half points.   

Creighton’s defense has not been nearly as stout as many are used to. The Bluejays yielded 68.5 points per game this year and can go cold on either side of the floor. Even against Baylor, Creighton built a nice lead but did give up 46 second-half points. Princeton is a 10-point underdog that should not be.

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Betting Trends Pick For Sweet 16

Alabama vs. San Diego St. - Alabama -7.5 (-110)

Alabama has not played its best college basketball in this tournament, yet it won two games by a combined 43 points. Blowing out Maryland looked routine. Alabama’s path is clear.

Now, half of the public thinks Alabama can cover the 7.5-point spread. San Diego St. gave up 109 points in two tournament games but has not played an Alabama yet. The Crimson Tide can attack in a number of ways. Alabama has covered four of their last five games against the spread. The one loss was against Texas-Corpus Christi, where the starters sat when the team was up by almost 30.

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Best Chances to Win March Madness - Futures Odds - Houston - +400

Fewer teams still stand out regarding Odds to Win March Madness. Houston is one, but Alabama and the UCLA-Gonzaga winner could be right there. The Sweet 16 is not without its upsets, but does anyone think Princeton can get to the Final Four and win the tournament?

March Madness Betting projects the Cougars just below Alabama, which greatly boosts its value because of where the Final Four is being played. That is correct. Houston, Texas, hosts the Final Four this year (NRG Stadium). At +400, the Cougars are still worth a look.

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