UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak Picks

Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak

It has been a tough ride for Lewis since he catapulted himself into title contention with a sensational knockout against Curtis Blaydes.

Lewis met Cyril Gane in his hometown of Houston just a few months after that knockout, but Gane made easy work of him. The Houston native would return to the win column with a fantastic KO victory over Chris Daukaus, but Lewis has since been stopped by Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich in 2022.

If he loses here, it would be his first three-fight losing run, and it is tough to see how he competes with such a phenomenal wrestler like Spivak.

Spivak is entering his 10th fight in the UFC and he has so far lost three and won six. These wins have seen him defeat well-known fighters like Alexey Oleynik, Tuivasa, Greg Hardy and most recently, Augusto Sakai. Now, at 28, Spivak is the favorite to beat Lewis and he has gone under the radar quite a bit on the heavyweight scene over the past two years.

The Moldovan has excellent wrestling, with six wins by submission and seven wins by knockout. In fact, with 15 victories and three losses from 18 fights, we think he could win comfortably against Lewis. 

There is always a chance that “The Black Beast” delivers one of his famous right hands on the chin of Spivak, but the 28-year-old has grown much wiser since his last KO loss to Tom Aspinall in late 2021.

We think Spivak could finish Lewis in this fight. 

Sergey Spivak by KO/TKO or submission is -170 with FanDuel.

Da Un Jung vs. Devin Clark 

A rising star meets a man fighting to potentially stay in the UFC in the co-main event this weekend, as Da Un Jung looks for his 16th win in 19 fights against Devin Clark.

Jung is the clear favorite to win this battle, but he does head into the octagon off the back of his first loss in seven years. The South Korean had previously lost just twice in MMA and these defeats came in 2015. A 14-fight win streak would come after that, but Dustin Jacoby dismantled him with a fantastic first-round KO in July 2022.

Nevertheless, Jung will be confident in an immediate return to the win column based on Clark's terrible record in the past few years. Since coming into the UFC in 2016, the American has gone on to win seven fights but lose seven, too. Clark has won just three fights and lost four since 2019.

Jung has very heavy hands, and his knockout power has been fully displayed in his six UFC fights. At 29, he has 11 of his 15 victories coming via knockout and he should get number 12 against Clark.

Da Un Jung to win by KO/TKO/DQ is +120 with DraftKings.

Marcin Tybura vs. Blagoy Ivanov

A heavyweight fight that could steal the headlines sees Marcin Tybura take on Blagoy Ivanov. These two have a combined age of 73 and both enter this fight off the back of wins in their last fight.

Tybura is narrowly the favorite to win this Saturday and he also has a significantly better record in the past four years. Ironically, the Pole has beaten this weekend's headliner, Spivak, while also defeating the likes of Ben Rothwell, Hardy, Walt Harris and most recently, Alexander Romanov. 

This run has catapulted Tybura into No. 10 in the heavyweight rankings, as he has lost only to Alexander Volkov via unanimous decision since his devastating KO loss to Sakai in 2019.

As for Ivanov, you never quite know what you'll get when he enters the octagon. Since joining the UFC, he has lost two controversial split decisions against Sakai and Lewis. Still, he also boasts unanimous decision wins over big names like Tuivasa and Marcos de Lima. 

The difference between these two in this fight is exceptional wrestling of Ivanov. As a former world champion in combat sambo, the Bulgarian also comes into this bout with a black belt in judo, six submission wins and six knockouts.

At 36, however, his days of being able to control fights from his decades of wrestling experience are far gone. Tybura is our pick here, and we predict it to be via knockout.

Marcin Tybura to win by KO/TKO/DQ is +400 with DraftKings. 

Doo Ho Choi vs. Kyle Nelson

Two fighters desperate for a win will meet in the second fight of the main card as Kyle Nelson and Doo Ho Choi come into Saturday’s battle with consecutive losses each.

Nelson has just one win on his record since defeating Morteza Rezaei in 2018 in what was his last fight outside of the UFC. Since moving into the world's biggest MMA organization, he has lost to Carlos Diego Ferreira, Matt Saylas, Billy Quarantillo, and Jai Herbert. Nelson's only win during this time was against Polo Reyes by an excellent TKO.

Nelson's record isn't half as bad as Choi’s recent run, however. The South Korean has lost his last three fights, as Cub Swanson beat him on points before TKO losses to Charles Jourdain and Jeremy Stephens. His last win came in 2016 against Thiago Tavares because Choi has not fought since 2019.

His three-year absence from fighting will either be a blessing or a curse. At 31, however, he could come back in the prime of his career and with 11 knockouts from 15 wins already, Choi is our pick to get his first win in almost seven years.

Doo Ho Choi to win by KO/TKO/DQ is +120 with DraftKings.

Adam Fugitt vs. Yusaka Kinoshita

A rising star meets with a combat sports veteran to kick off the main card Saturday, as Yusaku Kinoshita battles against Adam Fugitt.

Kinoshita is heading into this fight with a lot of hype behind him in his UFC debut. He most notably defeated José Henrique Souza in the Contender Series last year with a fantastic TKO victory. In his seven fights in professional MMA, the 22-year-old has won six of them and only lost to Ryuichiro Sumimura back in 2021 because of DQ because of a cage grab.

That loss was more or less because of inexperience and he should now have enough in the tank to beat Fugitt. At 34, Fugitt has only 11 fights in MMA and lost to Michael Morales via KO in his last match. The American secured a knockout win of his own last year, beating Solomon Renfro in the first round over in the LFA. 

However, the UFC seems to be too much of a step up for Fugitt and this fight looks made for Japan’s rising MMA star to win.

Yusaku Kinoshita to win by decision is +215 with DraftKings.
 

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