Betting Opens on Joe Biden Completing Full Term of Presidency
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UK betting sites reckon Joe Biden is the underdog heading into the 2024 US election and there remains some doubt as to whether or not he will even compete in the race this autumn.
President Biden, 81, is battling the perception that he is too old to run the country. A recent NBC News poll found 23% of voters worry he “may not have the necessary mental and physical health to be president for a second term”.
Mr Biden is two points behind rival Donald Trump in the polls and is losing ground on a number of key swing states.
That’s despite his Republican adversary being tied up in court over a “hush money” scandal that doesn’t appear to have harmed his chances of returning to the White House.
The bookies have placed Mr Biden behind Mr Trump in the US election betting odds for the best part of two years.
None of them are willing to nudge him ahead of the GOP figurehead and time is running out to change that.
Joe Biden Odds
Indeed, Mr Biden is facing a critical few months as he tries to ignite some verve into his presidential campaign. All the focus is on Mr Trump, who is using media appearances outside courtrooms as opportunities to rally more supporters.
There’s a very real possibility that Mr Trump could still successfully campaign for president while in prison.
That shows just how poorly Mr Biden’s campaign is doing right now. Usually an existing president has a poll boost as they seek a second term because voters lean on the consistency candidate instead of demanding change.
Yet the Biden odds place him a few percentage points off Mr Trump. The president is 11/10 with Boylesports to win the US election but his adversary is Evens.
Meanwhile, betting apps reckon there’s a 13% chance Mr Biden doesn’t even make it to November. Those odds on him completing his first term wholly reflect the view that Mr Biden’s health could prevent him from running.
Will Biden Beat Trump?
Political betting sites are biding their time, waiting for a significant change in the polls before they shift their US election odds. Right now they’re in a holding pattern, watching Mr Trump in court and Mr Biden on the campaign trail.
It’s likely that the outcome of Mr Trump’s first trial will be the catalyst for change. He is accused of aiding the cover-up of a payment to an adult movie star before the 2016 presidential election, in order to protect his reputation. Mr Trump denies the charges.
Three other criminal trials await him but winning this one would prove a significant boost to his popularity and his chances of being elected.
Mr Biden, meanwhile, has to run the country while also touting for votes. America recently agreed to a new multi-billion dollar aid package for Ukraine and the Middle East in an effort to resolve global conflicts.
Looking “strong” on the international stage is one thing but Mr Biden also needs to show Americans that the country’s fine economic health is making a difference to their pockets.
And this is the tricky bit. Many Americans feel left behind following the Covid-19 pandemic. It’s the same situation they were in after the financial crash in 2009.
They’re looking for an anti-establishment figure as they did in the lead-up to the 2016 election and Mr Trump is once again that man.
Mr Biden is currently the “not Trump” candidate but he doesn’t even have the benefit of being the change candidate that carried his campaign in 2020.
Now everyone knows who he is and his policies, and his administration will be judged on that this autumn.
Interestingly, polls show Republicans are more willing to stomach Mr Trump’s “vulnerabilities” than Democrats are Mr Biden.
It’s not a case of voters flipping from one side to the other, more a case of the Dems potentially facing a bigger struggle to get supporters out on November 5 to back their man.
All this means it's no surprise Mr Trump is leading in the politics odds as we inch towards the election.
The impetus is on Mr Biden to inspire a support base large enough to blow the Republicans away. He hasn’t done that yet.
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