Kingswood By-Election Odds: Labour Tipped While Reform UK Outperforms Tories

UK betting sites predict Labour will win the Kingswood by-election this week and overturn the Conservatives’ 11,000 majority in the process.

In fact, a flurry of punters are backing Reform UK to outdo the Tories and become Labour’s biggest rivals for the Bristol seat.

Kingswood is up for grabs following long-serving MP Chris Skidmore’s decision to resign over the government’s decision to push ahead with further oil and gas extraction. 

Mr Skidmore was due to step down at the next UK general election anyway.

This has opened the door for Labour to deliver what it hopes is another significant blow to prime minister Rishi Sunak’s premiership by claiming another seat in Westminster.

Damien Egan, former mayor of Lewisham, was selected for the post after previously being named the Labour candidate for Bristol North East – a seat that will succeed Kingswood at the next election.

Labour have therefore been ready to fight this contest for months, while the Tories scrambled to appoint councillor Sam Bromiley as their candidate in January.

Kingswood By-Election Odds

Indeed, political betting sites reckons the Conservatives have just a 5.9% chance of defending the seat. 

Mr Bromiley’s odds of 16/1 to win have risen from 9/1 just last week as Labour push ahead in the polls.

Interestingly, Reform UK’s candidate Rupert Lowe - a former MEP and ex-chairman of Southampton FC - is faring better than Mr Bromiley.

Mr Lowe is 14/1 to win Kingswood and is being supported by 27% of all bets in this market. Only 14% of punters are backing the Conservatives.

Of course, this is very much a fight for second place behind Labour. 

Half of all bets on this market are backing Mr Egan for victory and that weight of support has shortened these odds to a near-insurmountable lead.

Betfred recently cut their price on a Labour victory in Kingswood to 1/33, which represents a 97.1% probability.

How Kingswood Could Affect General Election

There’s no doubt that defeat in Kingswood is on the cards for the Conservatives. 

Mr Skidmore’s majority is about to go up in flames and, even if somehow it is Reform UK who win the seat, Labour will be back for more at the general election.

This seat, though, is changing. It will be devolved at the next election into three seats: North East Somerset and Hanham, Bristol North East, and Filton and Bradley Stoke. 

Labour’s Mr Egan will probably contest Bristol North East in the general election regardless of the result here.

Interestingly, a big Labour victory could have knock-on effects to other changed constituencies later this year. 

It could even raise hope of Labour unseating Jacob Rees-Mogg in North East Somerset and Hanham.

All eyes, then, are on the potential ripple effects that come from the Kingswood election.

Of course, there is also the impact a heavy defeat in Kingswood – and Wellingborough on the same day - could have on Sunak’s electoral chances.

The government is lagging 20 points behind Labour in the polls and has made no progress in recouping support over the past 12 months.

In fact, most voters who say they won’t back the Tories have either fled to Labour or Reform UK. 

A handful are backing the Lib Dems, but they are being squeezed by the other two parties.

The Tories have lost all but one of the nine by-elections under Rishi Sunak’s premiership. That might not be all his fault, but it is his responsibility to reignite support in the party.

The support has fled for now, which is why Sunak is 5/1 to be prime minister after the next election, and the Tories out at 12/1 to secure a majority.