American League 2023 Cy Young Best Bets: Predictions & Analysis 7-5-23

Over our last two AL Cy Young odds reviews, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Shane McClanahan was atop them to win the award. Now, he’s fallen to nearly +1000, depending on the platform you look at, due to back-to-back sub-four inning appearances, six earned runs, and now he’s on the injured list with a back issue. 

McClanahan is still one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League. Still, this injury might allow the others to catch up, who we’ll review today.

Below are the MLB betting odds for the two three candidates to win the award in the American League.

Favorites for the 2023 NL Cy Young Award

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros 

6/21/23 Pitching Stats: 7-5, 2.27 ERA, 99 IP, 104 Ks, 21 Walks

7/5/23 Pitching Stats: 7-6, 2.49 ERA, 105 IP, 110 Ks, 24 Walks

6/21/23 Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook (+300)

7/5/23 Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook (+200)

With McClanahan dealing with an injury, Valdez has emerged as the new favorite. Since we last checked in on Valdez, he has made just one start against the St. Louis Cardinals. In that start, he went six innings, allowing four runs, three walks, and six strikeouts.

This was far from a great outing by his standards, but his 2.49 ERA ranks first in the American League, and he’s still inside the Top 20 for strikeouts. 

He was skipped in the rotation in what should’ve been his next start because he sprained his ankle in his June 20 start, but he still went out there for that June 27 start against the Cardinals. 

Valdez would likely have better odds than those behind him, but his wins/losses, a stat that can undoubtedly be team dependent, are limiting him. If he had an 8-2 record, he might be in the “-” odd range. 

Valdez has proven to be a dominant pitcher all season despite a recent rough outing, and there are no signs of him slowing down, assuming he gets back in the rotation sooner rather than later. 

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

6/21/23 Pitching Stats: 7-3, 3.10 ERA, 98.2 IP, 127 Ks, 25 Walks

7/5/23 Pitching Stats: 7-4 3.04 ERA, 109.2 IP, 146 Ks, 27 Walks

6/21/23 Odds: Caesars Sportsbook (+700)

7/5/23 Odds: Caesars Sportsbook (+425)

Gausman is an intriguing choice for this award, betting-wise, thanks to his dominant strikeout numbers. He’s allowed just three runs over his last two starts and went for 11 innings. He had 12 strikeouts against the San Francisco Giants but took the loss as the Blue Jays couldn’t up a single run. 

Suppose Gausman can push that ERA below 3.00. In that case, it’ll look plenty more attractive on the resume, along with the high strikeout totals, which only trail Spencer Strider of the Atlanta Braves. 

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

6/21/23 Pitching Stats: 8-1, 2.64 ERA, 99 IP, 106 Ks, 30 Walks

7/5/23 Pitching Stats: 8-2, 2.79 ERA, 109.2 IP, 118 Ks, 33 Walks

6/21/23 Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook (+800)

7/5/23 Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook (+450)

Cole is somewhat of a combination of Valdez and Gausman. He has an ERA in the middle of them, slightly more strikeouts than Valdez, but has more wins than both. 

Since our last check-in, Cole has had two starts where he surrendered five total runs and combined 12 strikeouts across 10.2 innings. 

Cole must pull away from the guys above him in ERA or strikeouts to climb the list. 

With Valdez injured, this could happen, but he’s in somewhat of a statistical purgatory against high strikeout and American League-leading ERA pitchers.