American League Cy Young July Betting Tips, Picks, Analysis

The MLB American League Cy Young odds have gotten extremely close, including multiple sportsbooks having different players as the top dog. At DraftKings Sportsbook, it’s Framber Valdez, while FanDuel Sportsbook has Gerrit Cole.

This is perhaps the tightest single-player award right now in the MLB futures betting markets, and below, we’ll try to diagnose it and find the betting line value. 

Let’s check it out. 

Favorites for the 2023 AL Cy Young Award

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

• 7/5/23 Pitching Stats: 8-2, 2.79 ERA, 109.2 IP, 118 Ks, 33 Walks
• 7/19/23 Pitching Stats: 9-2, 2.78 ERA, 123 IP, 134 Ks, 35 Walks
• 7/5/23 Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook +450
• 7/19/23 Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook +220 

Since our last check-in, Cole has had two starts. He allowed four runs across 13.1 innings in those starts, striking out 16 batters. His most recent start accounted for 11 and one earned run. 

He also participated in the All-Star game, throwing a single inning. He didn’t allow a run or strike anyone out, though.

Thanks to those starts, with four total earned runs, he picked up a win and steadied his ERA. His two losses make his resume look more attractive, especially considering Valdez’s rise in ERA. 

Cole is heading in the right direction, so pounce on this before it dips below +200.

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros 

• 7/5/23 Pitching Stats: 7-6, 2.49 ERA, 105 IP, 110 Ks, 24 Walks
• 7/19/23 Pitching Stats: 7-6, 2.76 ERA, 117.1 IP, 129 Ks, 28 Walks
• 7/5/23 Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook +200 
• 7/19/23 Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook +245

Like Cole, Valdez has also had two starts since we last looked. His start on July 8 was fine. He allowed two earned runs and struck out six, but his last start against the Los Angeles Angels on July 15 saw him give up five earned runs, though he did get 13 strikeouts. 

Those runs ballooned his ERA from up to the now 2.76, which is close to Cole, and he has four more losses, fewer strikeouts, and fewer innings pitched. 

Valdez has been more consistent, but it has been a bit dicey for him lately, allowing 14 earned runs over his last five starts. 

In a close AL Cy Young race, Valdez needs to reign it in a bit before Cole pulls away with a good offense backing him. 

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

• 7/5/23 Pitching Stats: 7-4, 3.04 ERA, 109.2 IP, 146 Ks, 27 Walks
• 7/19/23 Pitching Stats: 7-5, 3.03 ERA, 115.2 IP, 153 Ks, 29 Walks
• 7/5/23 Odds: Caesars Sportsbook +425
• 7/19/23 Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook +360 

Gausman has been my dark horse in this race, but he’s been injured, making his last start on July 8 against the Detroit Tigers. According to Shi Davidi, Gausman will throw some tomorrow, but the timeline is still unknown.

In his last start, he held the Tigers to just two runs but got no run support. He got the loss but did strike out seven. 

Hopefully, Gausman can return sooner rather than later to maintain his Cy Young campaign. The ERA gap between him, Valdez, and Cole is shrinking, and his dominating strikeout numbers would be an excellent tiebreaker should they get close.