MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Oct. 5

Article By

John Ryan

Last Updated: Oct 5^th, 2022

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The last day of the regular season is here, and what a historic season it has been, led by the heroics of Aaron Judge hitting his 62nd home run. This homer against the Texas Rangers broke the American League record held by former Yankee Roger Maris.

Overall, the MLB season has been a highly profitable one, and it has been a pleasure providing these daily MLB features, including the player prop bets, which have produced a 72% return-on-investment (ROI) and profits of $2,630 per $100 wager.

The Baltimore Orioles were the most profitable moneyline bet, making $2,555 per $100 wager over the course of the season, with a doubleheader pending today.

The Miami Marlins and the Los Angeles Angels were the least profitable moneyline bets, losing $2,735 (Marlins) and $2,719 (Angels) per $100 wager.

The most profitable Run Line team to bet on this past season was the Los Angeles Dodgers. The team earned a $2,515 profit and 17% ROI. Remarkably, the Dodgers have won 110 games with one game left to the season, and 94 of those wins were by two or more runs. The next best teams are the Houston Astros and New York Mets, which had 78 wins by two or more runs this season.

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National League Best Bet

Arizona Diamondbacks +143 vs Milwaukee Brewers -170

4:10 p.m. ET

In the one game I like as a betting opportunity, the Arizona Diamondbacks will have Merrill Kelly on the hill, going against the Milwaukee Brewers and ace Corbin Burnes. Make certain these pitchers are starting today for this to be valid.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet Over the posted total in this matchup.

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The Brewers are 35-23 Over in games starting prior to 6 p.m. ET (day games) this season.
The Diamondbacks are 23-12-1 Over in road games.

I am betting the Over 7 runs at +105 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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Quick Pitches

Here are the player prop bets I like on today’s schedule:

Bet the Phillies starter Bailey Falter Over 4.5 strikeouts +128 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Bet the Yankees Aaron Judge to hit a home run +290 at BetRivers Sportsbook.
Bet the Twins Luis Arraez to get 2+ hits +160 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Bet the Angels starter Shohei Ohtani Over 7.5 strikeouts +125 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bet the Angels Mike Trout to hit a home run +425 at BetRivers Sportsbook.

The results over 158 previous prop bets, spanning more than five months, have produced a 64% return-on-investment (ROI). This includes a 72-86 record, making a profit of $530 per $20 pizza-money wager, or $2,630 per $100 wager.