Betting Advice, Analysis for the Monday Night Football Slugfest

Let’s take an early look at some numbers to keep an eye on for Monday night. 

All numbers courtesy of BetMGM.

So, this is another one of those games where the teams are genuinely evenly matched. It does not hurt for the Bengals that this is played “in the jungle.” 

Buffalo Bills (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals 

Monday 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati

The Cincinnati Bengals possess a flair for the dramatic. Last week, they were cruising, up 22 points at halftime versus the New England Patriots. It is rare to see a New England team look that lifeless in December. Yet, Joe Burrow and the short-to-intermediate passing game ripped the Patriots’ secondary apart.

All it took was a couple of mistakes, and New England nearly came back in the second half. It was reminiscent of what happened in Kansas City in the AFC Championship last season. In the end, Cincinnati forced a late fumble to preserve the win and the cover along with the Under.

This gave the Bengals 12 covers in their last 13 games against the spread. It is that resiliency from Cincinnati that makes them solid choices to go back to the Super Bowl. Again, the key for Cincinnati is to keep mistakes low. They did that against Kansas City in their win a few weeks ago. 

Now, the same can be argued for the Buffalo Bills. The Bills’ defense ranks as one of the best in the league, and Buffalo has a league-top 157-point differential. On the simple rating system, Buffalo is the best in the NFL, which is why they are a favorite to win the Super Bowl. However, for all the offense, the Bills’ defense has been a bit banged up lately. 

Buffalo comes in streaking like Cincinnati. The Bengals carry a seven-game streak, while the Bills have won six straight. Even on the road, the Bills are a very slight one-point favorite. Expect a little line movement here and there between now and Monday.

Should We Talk About The Weather And Make Our Pick?

The good news and bad news about Monday night is the weather. Usually, cold conditions will not be a part of the equation. That is the good news. Now, the bad news is the rain with those very mild temperatures. Like last week’s cold, holding on to the football will be at a premium. Both Joe Burrow and Josh Allen have some issues with the pigskin. Errant throws have a habit of getting picked off. 

The team that wins the turnover battle will likely win the game. Look at what Cincinnati did against Kansas City and what Buffalo did as well. 

Allen has 13 fumbles and 13 interceptions on the season. Cincinnati plays an opportunistic style on defense that could cause Allen problems here and there. 

The same can be said for Buffalo at this point. Burrow will get his yards, but will he avoid costly errors? Yes, the winner of this game gets one step closer to the top seed in the AFC. Home-field advantage helped Cincinnati against Kansas City, and the thought process is that it comes through again on Monday.

Our Pick is to take the Cincinnati Bengals outright this Monday Night. 

Happy New Year once more from Gambling.com, and enjoy this NFL weekend. All of our numbers are from BetMGM.