NFL Picks: Have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Turned Around the Season?

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network

 Line: Bucs -2.5 | Total: 44.5 points 

I am betting on the Bucs -2.5 points as offered at BetMGM. 

Tampa quarterback Tom Brady is second with 2,547 passing yards, just behind league-leader Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs with 2,605 yards. 

This game is in Germany and marks the first game since Week 1 that the Bucs' defense will be at full strength and their secondary and pass coverage defense will be better.  

The Seahawks are the surprise of the betting community, but they have played one of the easiest schedules. Seattle ranks 25th, averaging 18 points per game, will be going up against a full-strength Tampa Bay defense. 

The Buccaneers rank fourth in scoring offense, averaging 26.78 points per game, and best in scoring an average of 7.11 points in the first quarter. 

I see the price as near-fire sale price levels and would not be surprised to see Tampa Bay win by double-digits.  

Situational Trends and Angles 

• The Bucs are 11-3 against the spread when facing a team that is completing 64% or more of their passes in the second half of each of the past three seasons.
• From my predictive models, the Bucs have a 77% probability of scoring 28 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. In past games, in which the Bucs met or exceeded these measures has led them to a highly profitable 30-4 SU (88%), and 25-6-3 ATS (81%) over the past five seasons.

Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders 

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

Line: Raiders -4.5 | Total: 40.5 points 

I am betting on the Colts +4.5 points at Caesars. 

Despite the chaos that surrounds the Colts franchise, there is a positive going into this game against the Raiders and that is the return of running back Jonathan Taylor. 

Indy's ground attack ranks 30th, averaging 86.7 yards per game. With Taylor’s return, the Raiders' defense, which ranks 20th, allowing 110.3 rushing yards per game, will be forced to respect the run.

Could that open up the play-action or deep passing routes for the Colts? If so, that helps Indianapolis' chances here. 

Situational Trends and Angles 

The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Colts plus the points.  

• The Colts are 11-3 ATS in road games when facing struggling defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last three seasons.
• The Raiders are 14-32 ATS, losing 21 units on the moneyline, when playing against a team that has won 40% or fewer of their games in the second half of the season.
• The Raiders are 19-41 ATS, losing 24 units on the moneyline, in home games following a game in which they gained 75 or fewer rushing yards.

Other Games to Consider Against the Spread 

The Jacksonville Jaguars +9 1/2 points over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Games To Consider for Live Betting 

The Under Houston Texans at New York Giants

• The strategy is to bet 50% on the Under full-game preflop and then look to add 25% more at 44.5 and 25% more at 57.5 during the first half only.

Moneyline Bets To Consider 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -135 over the Seattle Seahawks at PointsBet 

Detroit Lions +130 over the Chicago Bears at BetMGM  

Over-Under Bets to Consider 

The Under 44 points in the Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers game as offered at DraftKings 

Best Prop Bet Picks 

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season. Let’s Go!