NFL Picks Week 17 - Home On The Ropes

The Cowboys still have slight aspirations of gaining top seed in the NFC while the Titans are fighting for their playoff lives.   

Be patient as we dive into this first game and offer an outlook that expands into the weekend’s contests. Week 17 breaks down to something like this. 

• Thursday Night - 1
• Sunday (early) - 9
• Sunday (4 pm ET or after) - 5
• Monday - 1 - A BIG ONE

So, our setup for this weekend is simple. There will be a bookended approach with the Thursday and Monday night games since both have some playoff implications. Then, we dive into Sunday’s games in between. 

In this space, the goal is to get down to business. Let’s go!

Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) at Tennessee Titans 

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee

The Cowboys keep things interesting. They made their game against Philadelphia more complicated than it needed to be last week, but they got the job done by a score of 40-34. Dallas lost the week before to Jacksonville by an identical outcome. Before assuming Tennesee will score 34 points or more this week, understand that the Titans have combined for 28 points in the past two weeks. 

Dak Prescott is going up against a Tennessee defense on Thursday night that is vulnerable to the pass. The Titans rank 31st in yards allowed (29th in touchdowns) but second against the run. Could Prescott and the Dallas offense use the pass to set up the run? It’s possible. 

This is Tennessee’s last home game of the regular season. It is in a contentious battle with Jacksonville for the AFC South. Their margin of error and value is lessening by the minute. Underdogs of seven points or worse are 0-23 outright since Week 11. The Titans have turned the ball over eight times in the last three weeks. That bodes poorly for them on Thursday.

Our Pick is to take the Dallas Cowboys laying 10.5 this Thursday Night. 

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-3)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Massachusetts

Again, how do the Patriots bounce back from what occurred last week. First, it was what happened against the Las Vegas Raiders. Then, New England rebounded against Cincinnati in the second half. They rallied back to cut the deficit to four, drove almost the length of the field, then fumbled the game away.

At least the Patriots are home again versus Miami. However, the Dolphins have their own problems. Miami was 8-3 like Tennessee was 7-3. The Dolphins are on a four-game losing streak, and Tua Tagovailoa has real concussion issues. Should he play? That answer is no, as the starter has been ruled out for Week 17. Teddy Bridgewater will play in his place. New England knows him well.

The key for New England is to stop making mistakes. That is all the Patriots did against the Bengals in the first half. Also, the Patriots have to stop short and intermediate passing attacks. The past few weeks have been an adventure. New England is a three-point favorite on Sunday afternoon from what expects to be a damp but soft track at Foxboro.

If New England loses, its season is done. Miami is hanging by a thread. Instead of looking at spreads, how about the Under 41.5? That may be a road to go.

Our Pick is to take the Under at 41.5 Sunday afternoon.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Raymond James Stadium, Tampa

The hottest team in the NFC South is none other than the Carolina Panthers. While consistency has been an issue, the Panthers are 4-2 in their last six games while running for 185 or more yards in their wins. That is their identity. Between D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard, Carolina’s offensive line has controlled the line of scrimmage to put them in this position. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers still employ Tom Brady. No matter how bad the Buccaneers look, this team is hard to count out. That being said, Carolina dominated the first meeting of the season 21-3. Could the Panthers come out on top again? Tampa is one-dimensional with its league-worst rushing attack.

Carolina possesses a potent enough offense, and Tampa Bay’s rush defense keeps dropping. It now ranks in the middle of the pack at 17th. A win would tie Carolina with Tampa Bay in the division no one wants to win. Do not be surprised. 

Our Picks are to take the Carolina Panthers with three points and outright on Sunday.

Happy New Year from everyone here at Gambling.com, and good luck this NFL weekend. All of our numbers are from DraftKings and BetMGM.