NFL Picks Week 18: Everything is On the Line

Week 18 has a battle for the AFC South between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. Simply, this game is win or go home.   

Our outlook dives into the notable weekend contests. Week 18 breaks down to something like this. 

• Saturday - 2
• Sunday (early) - 8
• Sunday (4 pm ET or after) - 6
• Monday - NONE

So, our setup for this weekend is simple. This allows us to prep for the Wild Card round next week as we deliver at least two big columns. 

In this space, the goal is to get down to some unfinished business. Let’s go!

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC

TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

The Jacksonville Jaguars took care of business last week while the Tennessee Titans rested Derrick Henry (hip injury). Is Henry 100%? In a Week 14 loss, the running back dashed for 122 yards and a touchdown. He tends to feast on AFC South competition. 

Trevor Lawrence has to be licking his chops. He is going up against a Tennessee defense that ranks 32nd in yards allowed (31st in touchdowns) but second against the run. Could Lawrence and company mix in short passing as a supplement to the run? It’s possible. 

This final battle between Jacksonville and Tennessee is for the AFC South crown and the fourth seed in the AFC. Tennessee's margin of error and value is zero. Underdogs of seven points or worse are 0 for the world outright since Week 11 (Tennessee is six teetering on seven). The Titans have turned the ball over 10 times in the last four weeks. 

Jacksonville has won four straight, while Tennessee has dropped six consecutive games. It may get dicey, but the Jaguars should win and cover behind their crowd on Saturday night. 

Our Pick is to take the Jacksonville Jaguars laying 6 this Saturday Night. 

New York Jets (-1) at Miami Dolphins

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens

Again, how do the Miami Dolphins get in the win column this week? Miami fumbled away more chances to win in New England than we can count. The result was a narrow 23-21 defeat that leaves it 8-8 and on the outside looking in. 

At least the Dolphins are home against the woeful Jets. However, the Jets managed to hammer Miami 40-17 in Week 5. Miami was 8-3 once upon a time, and literally, its season has been streaky. The Dolphins won three straight, lost three, won five, and lost five. What happens on Sunday?

Miami made two crucial mistakes at Foxboro. Worse, the Dolphins have one of the worst secondaries in football and could be without their two starting quarterbacks. Teddy Bridgewater has not thrown yet in practice (dislocated finger on throwing hand) and Tua Tagovailoa has been out since Dec. 11. With a low Over, that may be something to look at. Remember, Miami has to win and still needs a New England loss to make the second season.

If Miami loses, its season is done. The Jets would end Miami’s season after New York fumbled their playoff hopes away. 

Our Pick is to take the Jets laying one point Sunday afternoon.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

The hottest team in the NFC North is none other than the Green Bay Packers. While consistency has been an issue, the Packers have put it together just enough to win four straight games. At 8-8, all Green Bay has to do is win. Anything less than a win results in being eliminated. A loss puts Detroit in the playoffs, and a tie gets Seattle to the second season. 

This may be another game where Aaron Rodgers gets to air out the ball more (season-high 283 yards in the first meeting). Now, the defense the past two weeks has put the offense in great shape (eight turnovers caused). That will be vital on Sunday. Home cooking helps the Packers here. Detroit has dropped the past three contests at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay's chances of getting to the second season were as low as the Steelers before Christmas. Yet, here we are. The Packers have had everything break right for them. All Green Bay has to do is win. Aaron Rodgers, with the Aaron Jones/A.J. Dillon rushing combination, get that done by controlling the clock just enough on Sunday. Detroit's 520 yards allowed on the ground the past two weeks is too much to overcome, even for the Lions.

Our Pick is to take the Green Bay Packers to cover and make the playoffs.

All of our numbers are from DraftKings and BetMGM. Good luck this weekend!