NFL Week 1 Predictions, Odds and Picks | Best NFL Bets for Week 1

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 7, 2023, 8:20 p.m.
• TV: NBC
• My Best Bet: Detroit Lions +7 (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook

What better way to start the NFL betting season than by picking a side in the first game of the 2023-24 NFL regular season featuring the Super Bowl LVII champion Kansas City Chiefs? As part of the first-game festivities, the Chiefs will unveil its Super Bowl LVII championship banner and have an on-field pre-game presentation. 

Then it’s on to the football, where I’m actually going to fade the defending champs. Playing in the NFL kickoff game is a massive step up for a Detroit Lions team that hasn’t been in the spotlight as much over the last two decades. But the team has trended up from being a traditional bottom-dweller in the NFC standings to now becoming the favorite to win the NFC North Division at +155 on FanDuel Sportsbook.  

One reason I’m high on Detroit is it managed to bolster its roster on both sides of the ball. The Lions averaged the fifth-most points per game last season at 26.6 and managed to add more offensive weapons to help quarterback Jared Goff. Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs was taken at No. 12; his speed should give the Lions another dimension out of the backfield. The team’s second-round pick, Iowa tight end Sam LaPorta, also gives Goff another receiving option. 

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Detroit also addressed its defensive woes by signing cornerback Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions in just 12 games. The Lions also signed defensive backs Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley in an attempt to bolster a secondary that allowed the most passing yards per attempt last season (7.5). 

The Lions were the second-best team against the spread last season, going 12-5. It will be interesting to see how Detroit performs now that the team will have greater expectations. But the seven-point spread is a bit too high given the improvements the team has continued to make. Plus, Kansas City is just 10-26 as a favorite of -3.5 or more since November 2020. 

bet365 has +7 still on Detroit - a key number in football - and the standard -110 odds.   

Recommended Bet: My Best Bet: Detroit Lions +7 (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook

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• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, 4:25 p.m. EDT
• TV: FOX
• My Best Bet: Green Bay Packers +2.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

FOX’s Game of the Week features two historic franchises, the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. For both, it’s a time of transition. Jordan Love is now the Packers' starting quarterback after Aaron Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets, and Justin Fields enters his second season as the Bears starting quarterback. 

Traditionally, this has been a spot the Packers have dominated. Green Bay has won 13 of its last 14 games against the Bears and the last eight overall. But overall, last season was a struggle for the Packers who finished 8-9 and missed out on a playoff spot with a Week 18 loss to the Lions. It came as a result of an average season for Rodgers, who threw for the fewest passing yards in a full healthy season (3,695) and has the second-most interceptions of his career (12). 

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Any bet on the Packers is done with the thought Love is ready to take over and be a solid starter in his first full season. There were some solid moments in sparing action last season. Against Philadelphia, he completed 6 of 9 passes for 113 yards and a touchdown, which was his only substantial game action of the season. Love could benefit from two seasons of sitting behind Rodgers and in head coach Matt LaFleur’s system, and there should be some rejuvenation around the team with the excitement of Love and a new era. 

Since becoming the Packers’ coach, LaFleur has been a solid coach to back as an underdog. He’s 13-4 against the spread as an underdog, including 12-4 with Rodgers and 1-0 with Love. I don’t mind backing the Packers around Love’s potential breakout and LaFleur’s history as an underdog coach. 

Recommended Bet: Green Bay Packers +2.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

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