Thursday Night Football: Can the Titans Defense Stifle the Green Pay Packers?

Here is my Week 10 Thursday Night NFL bets that I will take to the window. We'll start with our prop bets, then pick the game.

Prop Bet Picks for Thursday's Game 

For the season, player prop bets are 54-39 for 59% winning bets, making $985 per $50 bet. 

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers 

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

 Line: Packers -3 | Total: 41 points 

I am betting on the Titans plus the 3 points as offered at BetMGM. 

The Packers are coming off a win against the Dallas Cowboys where they came back from a late third quarter 28-14 deficit to win in overtime.

The Titans are coming off another win where the defense played strong and the offense did just enough in a 17-10 win against the Denver Broncos.

The Packers' win over the Cowboys did not cure and fix the multitude of problems on the offense. They still rank 25th in scoring offense at 18.5 points per game and 25th with a .294 point-per-play ratio. 

The Titans' defense is capable of eliminating the Packers' ground game and forcing quarterback Aaron Rodgers to throw passes into the teeth of their coverage. 

Situational Trends and Angles 

• The Titans are 15-4 SU (79%) and 12-6-1 against the spread (67%) when facing an opponent that averages 4.5 or more yards per rush over the past three seasons.
• From my predictive model, the Titans are 13-3 SU (81%) and 14-2 ATS (88%) in games where they gained a minimum of 135 rushing yards and had fewer turnovers than their opponent since 2018.
• The Packers are 2-8 SU (20%) and 1-9 ATS (10%) when allowing 135 or more rushing yards and committing more turnovers than their opponent in games played since 2018.