Thursday Night Football Picks: Can Carolina Split the Season Series with Atlanta?

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John Ryan

Last Updated: Nov 10^th, 2022

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Thursday Night Football Picks: Can Carolina Split the Season Series with Atlanta?

Here is my Week 10 Thursday Night NFL bets that I will take to the window. We'll start with our prop bets, then pick the game.

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Prop Bets to Consider Tonight

For the season, player prop bets are 49-33 for 61% winning bets, making $1,024 per $50 bet.

Sportsbook	Odds	Prop Bet
PointsBet	-120	Falcons’ Marcus Mariota Over 155.5 passing yards
FanDuel	-110	Panthers’ DJ Moore Over 55.5 receiving yards
FanDuel	-110	Falcons’ Kyle Pitts Over 37.5 receiving yards
Caesars	+110	Panthers’ Eddy Pineiro Over 1.5 made field goals
BetMGM	+100	Falcons’ Younghoe Koo Over 1.5 made field goals
FanDuel	+112	Panthers’ Shaq Thompson Over 8.5 tackles and assists

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

Line: Falcons -2.5 | Total: 41.5 points

I am betting on the Falcons -2.5 points as offered at BetMGM.

These two teams faced each other in Week 8 with the Falcons winning 37-34 in overtime.

The Falcons are 10-3 straight up (SU) and 9-4 against the spread (ATS) the last 13 meetings against the Panthers and have scored at least 21 points in the 10 wins and fewer than 21 points in the losses.

The market is reflecting a 22-19.5 Falcons win and my predictive models project an 80% probability that the Falcons will score at least 20 points and will gain a minimum of 150 rushing yards.

The Falcons are 11-1 SU (92%), 10-2 ATS (83%) and 8-4 Over-Under when scoring 20 or more points and gaining 150 or more rushing yards the past five seasons.

The Panthers are 0-21 SU, 2-19 ATS (10%) and 14-7 Over-Under (67%) when allowing 20 or more points and allowing 150 or more rushing yards over the past five seasons.

Situational Trends and Angles

The Panthers are 3-14 SATS (18%) following a game that went Over the posted total spanning the past two seasons.
The Panthers are 3-10 ATS (23%) in home games and have lost two of their last three games spanning the last three seasons.
The Panthers are 5-12 ATS (29%) when facing a team with a losing record over the past three seasons.