Thursday Night Football Picks: Expect Points Between Bills, Patriots

Prop Bet Picks for Thursday’s Game

For the season, player prop bets are 65-48 for 58% winning bets averaging a +248 wager, making $1,863 per $50 bet.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon

Line: Bills -4 | Total: 43.5 points

I am betting Over the posted total of 43.5 points as offered at Caesars.

This matchup of AFC East foes will take center stage Thursday Night in NFL Amazon Prime action. The Bills start a crucial three-game stretch against AFC East foes that will go a long way to deciding the AFC East winner. After this game, they will host the New York Jets, who they lost to earlier this season, and then host the Miami Dolphins, who they lost in a wild game in Week 3, 21-19. 

The Bills are winning their home games by an average of 16.8 points per game but winning their road games by just 4.3 points per game. The Patriots are winning their home games by an average of 6.0 points per game and I like betting the home dog getting the points in this matchup.

The Patriots have scored 20 or more points in three of their last four games, with a weather-related 10-3 home win over the Jets being the only below-average output. Their three-game scoring average is at 20.67 PPG and within a point of their season-to-date scoring average of 21.73 PPG. So, I like where the offense is right now, and they are in a position to exceed 24 points in each of their next three games per my predictive models.

The Patriots are playing their best football on both sides of the football right now as evidenced by season-bests with offensive and defensive yards per point ratios. The Bills' offensive yards per point ratio is a season-best level, while their defensive yards per point ratio has regressed modestly in recent weeks. This matchup of teams with their current yards per point trends underscores the strength of betting opportunity on the OVER.

Situational Trends and Angles

• The Bills are 12-4 Over in road games and facing a foe that is completing 61% or more of their passes in games played over the last three seasons.
• The Patriots are 14-6 Over in home games following a game in which they gained 350 or more passing yards over the past 20 seasons.
• The Bills are 9-4 Over after having won six or more of their last eight games in games played over the past 10 seasons.