What We Learned In NFL Week 4

Entering Week 4, two undefeated NFL teams remained. 

One, the Miami Dolphins, lost to the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football. The other, the Philadelphia Eagles, overcame a 14-point first-quarter deficit to defeat the Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points, covering the 6.5-point spread. 

The Dolphins lost more than the game. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was in the concussion protocol after he absorbed a frightening helmet-to-helmet hit, then hit his head on the ground. His return timetable is uncertain.

The Las Vegas Raiders were the only team without a win entering Week 4. They defeated the AFC West rival Denver Broncos 32-23 and covered the spread, too.

Since 1989, one undefeated team has been left standing, like the Eagles this year, in only four other seasons — 1994, 2010, 2017 and 2021 — which speaks to the league’s parity. 

Last season, the Arizona Cardinals won their first seven games and covered the spread in six, then won just four of their remaining 10 games, covering just four times and barely making it to the playoffs. All these figures serve as stark reminders of the league’s unpredictability. 

What Else Did We Learn in NFL's Week 4?

Through four weeks of NFL games, underdogs went 25-38-1 straight-up (SU) and 34-28-2 against the spread (ATS) for 55% winning bets, including a profitable 25-38 Over-Under record good for 60% winning Under bets.

Home underdogs are 10-5-1 SU, 14-11-1 ATS for 56% winning bets, and a solid 7-19 Over-Under good for 73% winning Under bets.

Home favorites are 23-15 SU and 17-20-1 ATS for 54% winners, including an 18-19-1 Over-Under record good for 49% winning Under bets.

Home teams lined between the threes (between a three-point favorite and a three-point underdog) are 15-14 SU and 14-13-2 ATS, including a 11-17-1 Over-Under record for 61% winning Under bets.

Home teams taking on a divisional rival are 14-7-1 SU and 14-8 ATS for 64%, including an outstanding 3-18-1 Over-Under record good for 86% winning Under bets.

Teams coming off a double-digit loss to the spread are 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS for 64%, including a 7-7 Over-Under record.

Highly profitable situational trends and angles for Week 5

Teams coming off an overtime win in which they and their opponent scored in each quarter fall flat the following week, producing a 19-30 SU record and a 19-28-2 ATS record, including a 17-32 Over-Under record good for 65% winning Under bets. Home favorites have a been a terrible 4-9 SU and 2-11 ATS, for 15%, including a 5-8 Over-Under record. 

This works to fade the Green Bay Packers and bet on the New York Giants in their Week 5 matchup.

The Bengals are 8-5 SU and 7-6 ATS, including a 3-10 Over-Under record following a game in which they converted 50% or more of their third downs and held their previous opponent to less than a 30% success rate on third down conversions. Consider a bet on the Under when the Bengals take to the road to play the Baltimore Ravens.

Teams that had 35% or fewer of the betting tickets bet on them have gone 10-7 ATS this season.

Teams that had 10% more of the money bet percentage than the number of tickets bet percentage are 16-9 ATS this season.

Teams that have exceeded their team total by 28 or more points spanning their last three games, playing in a game in which they are lined between a 3.5-point favorite and a 3.5-point underdog and with the total priced between 45 and 49.5 points, have seen the total produce a 51-30-2 Over-Under record. That’s good for 63% winning Over bets. 

Consider an Over bet when the Lions take to the road to play the Patriots.

From Week 5 on, teams that made first downs on 40% or more of the plays they ran in a SU and ATS loss and allowed 10 or more points above their previous opponent’s team total are a solid 29-8 SU and 23-12-3 ATS, for 65.7% winning bets, and 20-15-2 Over-Under. 

Consider betting on the Bucs when they host the Falcons.