Kamala Harris Election Odds: Donald Trump Edges Ahead In Latest Twist
Betting sites have shifted Kamala Harris’ odds to beat Donald Trump in the 2024 US election following a surge in bets for the Republican candidate over the past week.
Harris and Trump cannot be split in the polls right now and the presidential election race looks to be a toss-up between a few swing states.
The Democrats are riding a wave of optimism after Harris replaced Joe Biden on the top of the ticket.
Her choice of running mate – Tim Walz – has only improved her chances of winning the election this November.
Donations have flooded in and suddenly it's the Republicans who are worried that they’ll be outspent come election day.
And yet, the latest movement in the US political betting markets has favoured Trump. Remarkably, he has returned to being the favourite to win the election despite the fanfare over his rival.
The reason for this appears to be fresh activity among politics punters who have looked at Trump’s recent odds and gone heavy backing him.
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Kamala Harris Odds
Indeed, the US presidential betting market is a strange one to track right now.
The polls suggest Harris has a three-point national lead over Trump. That is within the margin of error, and in reality this election will be decided on no more than seven swing states.
So why is Trump ahead on betting apps?
Well, it’s all to do with punters seeking value in the market. Harris’ odds fell as short as 4/6 last month during the Democratic party convention. That price suggested a 60% chance of winning the election.
But the price only fell that low because punters were willing to bet on Harris and drive the odds down. Trump’s odds inflated as a response.
Now punters are doing the opposite. With Trump out to 11/10, bettors suddenly saw value in his price. The last few days have seen him backed in to 10/11 with Bet365, which carries a 52.4% probability.
Harris, by contrast, is out at Evens (50% likelihood) with William Hill, while Trump commands 61% of all bets on this market.
Can Harris Beat Trump?
Of course, the political betting sites aren’t the most obvious way to track the campaign success of either candidate.
However, they were closer than the polls when predicting who would win the 2016 presidential election, the outcome of the Brexit referendum and the latest UK election.
Bettors cannot decide who will win the 2024 presidential race, which is why the odds are so even. Every time there’s a shift, someone spots value and places a bet.
But what is for certain is Harris has a better chance of beating Trump than Biden did.
She is polling at 48.4% and appears to have secured the policy argument that Trump’s advisors are asking him to focus on.
The Republicans poll better on immigration and the economy but Trump appears fixated with denigrating Harris, rather than sticking to policy.
It’s not working. Harris is gathering more support despite not being fully quizzed on her policy remit.
It looks as though the Democrat tactic, for now, is to stick with personality politics as much as Trump is doing. This election could be almost devoid of policy focus.
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But will the plan hold? One TV debate between the pair, and perhaps more, has been scheduled.
Harris is a strong debater but Trump isn’t your average politician. The outcome of the September 10 debate could have a great impact on this presidential race, as it did for Biden when he appeared on the stage earlier this summer.
If Harris can keep the positivity and stay away from major scrutiny then the Dems will hope that’s enough to get her over the line. She still has momentum even when new betting sites make Trump the favourite.
Punters will almost certainly pounce on her latest high price on before long.
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