Kamala Harris Election Odds: Democrats Underdog As Trump Leads On Election Day

Betting sites have slashed their odds on Kamala Harris winning the 2024 US election on the eve of the vote – but they still believe the Democrat is the underdog against Donald Trump.

The bookies have been working overtime to service bets on the 2024 presidential election as punters piled in on Trump over the past three weeks.

However, ahead of the election, Harris's odds have swung back from an all-time high price to settle at around 6/5.

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The rapid change means Harris is still second favourite behind Trump to win the race, but her price is much more favourable than at the weekend.

Indeed, the odds finally seem to be balancing out and reflecting the polls for November 5, which suggest there’s a paper-thin difference between the two candidates.

And Harris bettors may well be preparing to celebrate a big win come Tuesday night.

Kamala Harris Odds

Remarkably, a trend that has lasted almost a month ended two days out from the election and now sees Harris close to 50/50 to beat Trump this week.

The vice president’s odds had climbed to 7/4, which suggested a 36.4% chance of her winning. It was a long way from the 4/6 (60%) odds she once boasted in late summer.

The bookies weren’t expected to hold this price for long, though, as punters started to see value in the Harris ticket. And so, in the space of 48 hours, her odds have crashed in to 6/5 at BetMGM.

Those odds carry a more favourable 45.5% probability and throw Harris back into this contest. Trump, meanwhile, has seen his odds inflate from 1/2 (66.6% probability) to 8/11 (57.9%) with Betfred.

Will Harris Beat Trump?

The shift in the odds means betting sites now generally reflect the same number as the polls. Yes, Harris leads the national polls by less than a percentage point. But it’s Trump who is ahead in four of the seven swing states.

The Republicans lead Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina by one point, while Trump is three points clear in Arizona. That would probably not be enough to get him over 270 electoral college votes. 

If Harris wins Pennsylvania (currently tied), Michigan and Wisconsin, and the rest of the country votes as expected, then she would land on exactly 270.

Harris needs a Sun Belt swing state along with the Rest Belt three to lock in victory. North Carolina looked like her best option but Trump has thrown resources at that state and appears to be making progress.

The other big prize was Nevada. Las Vegas has never really taken to Trump and it’s far more liberal than outlying counties, so could swing the vote to the Dems.

However, election day has Harris behind in these key states and at the bookies.

It’s hard to see how she wins from here, unless the polling underestimated apathy towards Trump. Many Republicans who don’t like Trump’s MAGA politics have turned away from the party but, on election day, might check that box.

There’s a handful of undecided voters too, who may believe they were financially better off under Trump between 2016 and 2020, than they were during the Joe Biden administration.

Harris is a vote for change against the Biden regime, but so is Trump. Voters know what they’re getting with the GOP frontman and at least 47% of the country seems to like it.

The pair are scrapping over a few thousands voters, in a few counties, across seven swing states. This race is going to go down to the wire, but UK betting sites and punters reckon Harris will lose.