Suella Braverman Tory Leadership Odds: 2025 Tops Odds For Her To Take Charge

Date IconLast Updated: 13 Nov 2023
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Suella Braverman Tory Leadership Odds: 2025 Tops Odds For Her To Take Charge
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Suella Braverman is most likely to take over the Conservative Party leadership in 2025, but may have to wait a long time to become UK prime minister.

Ms Braverman is thought to be angling for an inevitable leadership contest as PM Rishi Sunak sleepwalks to an expected electoral defeat next year.

She is not alone, with UK betting sites tipping Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt to succeed Sunak.

Braverman’s recent intervention into how the Met Police oversaw pro-Palestinian protests on Remembrance Sunday split the Tory party and exposed Sunak’s lack of influence within his own cabinet.

It was the latest incident in recent times when Braverman was perceived to have undermined the Prime Minister.

Eventually, Rishi Sunak had enough, removing her as Home Secretary on Monday, November 13 as her comments on the pro-Palestinian protests were seen to have caused a spate of attacks on police officers by far right counter-protesters claiming they were there to 'protect' the Cenotaph. 

All this is music to the ears of the Labour Party, as Sir Keir Starmer’s party lead the Tories by 19 points in the polls. Were there to be an election tomorrow, the Tories would suffer huge losses and surrender power to their great rivals.

Disarray in the government is usually a sign that its life is coming to an end. Many believe Braverman can sense it too and she will now use her sacking to seek the top job in the Conservative Party.

But just how likely is that outcome, and when could Braverman realistically take charge of the Tory party? We’ve crunched the numbers to find out…

UK General Election Odds
Best Odds
% Chance
Labour Party
83.33%
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No Overall Majority
16.67%
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Conservative Party
6.67%
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Suella Braverman Odds

Right now, the bookies reckon Braverman's be the next Conservative Party leader have improved because her dismissal - coming into 7/2 currently after being out as far as 10/1 in recent times. 

Kemi Badenoch remains the favourite at 3/1, with Penny Mordaunt at 5/1 with BetMGM.

Braverman's replacement as Home Secretary, James Cleverly, is also priced at 5/1 has he has shifted over from the Foreign Office to be replaced, by of all people, the former Prime Minister David Cameron. 

Yet it is the previous home secretary who is drawing the most attention as Sunak’s empire seemingly crumbles.

Braverman recently published an article in the Times newspaper, claiming the Met Police were overly aggressive to right-wing protestors while expecting “pro-Palestinian mobs” to be treated lightly (something she doubled down on in the wake of the Remembrance Day protest issues). 

It also emerged Sunak did not sign off on the article, but Braverman had it published anyway.

She is also no stranger to stoking division. In her speech at the Tory Party conference she branded migrants a “hurricane” threatening the UK, adding: “Today the option of moving from a poorer country to a richer one is not just a dream for billions of people, it's an entirely realistic prospect.”

She also recently sought to push through laws to prevent homeless people sleeping in tents.

Braverman is the populist choice for Conservative members who will vote on who eventually replaces Sunak. And this is exactly where she wants to be positioned.

No-one else - not Badenoch, Mordaunt or Cleverly - is interested in capturing the far-right ground as much as Braverman.

It is therefore likely that the odds on political betting sites are wrong when they suggest she is the outsider in the race to replace Sunak. Braverman could hoover up votes from like-minded Tory members if she’s on the ballot.

When Braverman Will Be Tory Leader Odds

DateOddsProbability
Before The End Of 202360/11.6%
1 Jan 2024 to 30 Jun 202412/17.7%
1 Jul 2024 to 31 Dec 20247/112.5%
20253/125%
2026 And Beyond6/114.3%
To Never Become Party Leader6/114.3%

When Braverman Might Be Tory Leader

Gambling.com has therefore looked over the possibilities of when Suella Braverman could be the next Conservative leader. Right now, 2025 looks like the most likely option.

Looking through the betting options here, it’s evident that Braverman’s chances of leading the Conservatives are slim for now, despite her media profile.

This is largely because there are two big hurdles for her to overcome. The first is to position herself as the clear choice to replace Rishi Sunak, among a rabble of other likely candidates. 

The other is that the party will need to think hard about what it wants from a new leader should it, as expected, fall into opposition. Do they want to swing further to the right when Labour are snapping up centrist votes?

That’s why Braverman is still 6/1 never to be party leader. There have been more influential and controversial figures down the years who didn’t get near the top job.

As for timing, the odds of Braverman succeeding Sunak in 2023 are very slim because we’re simply running out of time for this eventuality. 

Say Sunak quits or is toppled soon, the Tories would still want to hold a fresh leadership contest and put the vote out to members. That could take up to eight weeks.

Braverman is more likely to be leader in the first half of 2024 (12/1), but that outcome would only occur if Sunak quit or lost a snap election. 

Right now, the PM doesn’t seem interested in a spring election, especially with his party trailing Labour so badly.

How about the second half of 2024? A snap election here is more likely and Labour are 1/10 with some UK bookmakers to win the most seats. 

Sunak could plump for an autumn 2024 vote but can’t leave it too late as this would clash with the 2024 US presidential election and cause a security risk in the West.

January 2025, then, looks like a viable election date. Should Sunak lose this, then the Tories would fall into opposition and would have time to find a new leader. 

Analysts reckon this is what Braverman is angling towards. She’s playing the long game now and courting attention in the hope it pays off when Sunak is out of the picture.

At 3/1, we reckon Braverman has a great chance of being Tory leader in 2025. Her odds aren’t lower because the likes of Mordaunt and Badenoch will also push for the job. 

This is the timeline Braverman seems to be plotting towards and the Tories may need an attention grabbing leader to bring them back from the ashes if their predicted election decimation comes to pass.

2026 and beyond is also a possibility. Should the Conservatives lose the next but one election, perhaps in 2030, then another leadership contest may begin. 

It’s at this stage that Braverman, if she is still influential in the party, could have an unrestricted crack at the job.

However, at 6/1 betting apps feel she has as much chance as being Tory leader in 2026 or beyond as never getting the post.

* Reminder: These are hypothetical odds provided by industry experts.