Suella Braverman Tory Leadership Odds Balloon Because Of Nigel Farage

UK betting sites have flipped their odds on Suella Braverman becoming Conservative party leader just months after she was placed as the firm favourite for the job.

Ms Braverman looked all set to succeed Rishi Sunak when the prime minister eventually lost his post - either via a general election or another Tory leadership challenge.

Many UK bookmakers had Ms Braverman as short as 3/1 to succeed the PM and lead the Conservative party in a more right-wing direction.

However, her odds have ballooned since Mr Sunak called a July 4 general election and Ms Braverman is now the rank outsider to get the job.

Remarkably, the former top name among Tory MPs and members is behind even Nigel Farage - the leader of Reform UK - to succeed Mr Sunak.

Yet there remains some hope in the Braverman camp that the former home secretary can deliver a successful pitch to Conservative members after the election.

Suella Braverman Odds

Ms Braverman has endured one of the most tumultuous careers in British politics over the last five years. 

The barrister has twice served as Attorney General and as Home Secretary, but has endured her fair share of controversies in the role.

She was finally sacked from the front bench in the autumn of 2023 and replaced by James Cleverly, while Lord Cameron came into the cabinet as foreign secretary.

That reshuffle proved a major turning point in the Braverman odds. Her price on political betting sites to succeed Mr Sunak slimmed from 10/1 to 3/1 as rumblings of a populist rebellion sounded across Westminster.

It never happened, but Lee Anderson’s decision to defect to Reform UK meant Ms Braverman became the flag bearer for Tory right-wing populism.

Early in 2024 it looked like she was in a strong position to challenge Mr Sunak in a leadership contest. This could have come over the summer had the PM not called the next UK general election.

As soon as Mr Sunak announced the vote, Ms Braverman’s price ballooned. 

She is now 9/1 with Bet365 to be the next Tory leader, behind Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, Priti Patel and Nigel Farage.

Will Braverman Run For Tory Leader?

The reason Ms Braverman’s price on betting apps has ballooned is because of Reform UK and Mr Farage. 

Six months ago, she looked like the natural option for right wingers dissatisfied with Mr Sunak to gravitate around. 

She had backbench support and the ear of influential figures like Mr Anderson and former prime minister Liz Truss.

But then Reform began polling at above 10%. Populist support within the Tory party shifted to the new party. Ms Braverman has been left with fewer supporters as many are now backing Reform.

Mr Farage’s decision to run in Clacton this summer means he is now on course to win a seat in Westminster and could, feasibly, get on the ballot to succeed Mr Sunak.

Meanwhile, Ms Mordaunt and Mr Tugendhat command the centrist wing of the party membership, while Ms Patel and Ms Badenoch offer an option for populists. Suddenly there is no room for Ms Braverman.

And yet, if she wins in Fareham and Waterlooville this summer then she’ll have some room for manoeuvre. 

The fall-out of a Tory implosion could be fierce and few would be surprised if she joined Mr Tugendhat on the ballot.

Remember, too, that Conservative members vote for their leader, not Conservative voters. 

They backed Ms Truss to succeed Boris Johnson in 2022, despite her being an outside bet at the time.

With the Tories facing electoral wipeout, the party membership is likely to demand something different to Mr Sunak. 

Centrists like Tom Tugendhat may not cut through, whereas populists in the Ms Braverman mould could fare better than the odds suggest.