Wellingborough By-Election Odds: Big Victory For Labour Over Tories Expected

UK betting sites expect Labour to overturn the Conservatives’ 18,500 majority and win Thursday’s Wellingborough by-election at a canter.

The seat is up for grabs following a recall petition that removed MP Peter Bone last year. He had been suspended by the Commons for bullying.

Gen Kitchen is Labour’s pick to run in what appears to be a one-horse race right now, despite 10 other candidates putting their name forward for the post.

Her main rival is Tory candidate Helen Harrison, who just happens to be the girlfriend of Mr Bone. 

The Liberal Democrats and Reform UK are also hoping to make an impact in this by-election and run Labour close.

However, political betting sites don’t expect anything but a victory for Sir Keir Starmer’s party this week and have steadily been cutting their odds in recent days.

Wellingborough By-Election Odds

According to the bookies, Labour have a 92.3% chance of winning this by-election. 

Those odds of 1/12 with Betfred run in stark contrast with the Conservatives’ price of 10/1, which is on par with Reform UK.

Ms Harrison’s odds have come in over the last few days but not by much. In fact, the bulk of the bets in this market have sided with Reform UK’s Ben Habib, the party’s co-deputy leader and former MEP.

Mr Habib looks like the only real rival to Labour right now, and the millionaire businessman is calling on voters to send a “very significant shock” to the Tories.

That in itself exposes the reality of Reform UK’s position in this by-election. They’re hunting Conservative voters, not Labour’s supremacy.

Indeed, it looks near-certain that Labour will win this election and condemn prime minister Rishi Sunak to yet another defeat.

Could Wellingborough Hurt Sunak?

Much of the debate surrounding both the Wellingborough by-election and Kingswood this week is focused on how the votes will affect Rishi Sunak. 

The PM is floundering in the polls and must call a general election by January 2025 at the latest.

Pollsters project a heavy Tory defeat not seen since Labour’s resounding victory in 1997.

There have been nine by-elections since Sunak replaced Liz Truss as party leader. 

The Tories have won just one of them. That was Boris Johnson’s former Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat, which could easily have flipped red were it not for the debate around ULEZ.

Some analysts are predicting that two defeats this week would leave Sunak vulnerable to a leadership challenge.

The likes of Suella Braverman and even Truss appear to be waiting in the wings. 

They have pushed further to the right of the party in the hope of attracting the populist support that gave life to Johnson’s premiership.

Sunak, meanwhile, has tried to edge closer to the centre in order to court undecided voters while also appeasing his backbenchers with tough stances on immigration. 

It hasn’t really worked, and voters are fleeing to Labour and Reform UK.

The result is that Thursday’s by-elections will almost certainly sting the PM. However, they’re unlikely to trigger a landslide of calls for his resignation.

The Conservatives are too close to a general election now to trigger a fifth leadership contest since 2016. 

If the odds on betting apps are correct, they’re just going to have to withstand the blow that’s looming in Wellingborough this week.